Will the Republican Party win the UT-01 House seat?
Current price
3.8¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.8%
$39.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Utah's 1st congressional district. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data acting as a clear fallback in ambiguous scenarios. Independent or third-party winners are handled through explicit rules linking their affiliation to whichever major party they have expressed an intent to caucus with by the time all national House races are called. While relying on journalistic consensus requires decider judgement, the clear fallback and standard election mechanics create minimal overall resolution risk.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the candidate representing or affiliating with the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Utah's 1st congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate who wins the UT-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation at the time all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the definitive fallback if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — Election day for the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives races.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity exists
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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