Will the Republican Party win the TX-34 House seat?
Current price
16.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$5.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins Texas's 34th congressional district in the November 2026 midterms. The rules explicitly define party affiliation via ballot listing or caucusing intent, preventing ambiguity around independents. While initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which involves some discretion, any dispute defaults to official Federal Election Commission certified records. The mechanics align closely with a straightforward reading of the question.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the TX-34 congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with the party if unaffiliated on the ballot.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the TX-34 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections has a ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation with the Republican Party, or if unaffiliated with either major party, has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans when all House races are called. It resolves No if the winning candidate represents or caucuses with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission (FEC) results serving as the sole authority in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election takes place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the sole official source if ambiguity arises.
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