Will the Democratic Party win the TX-32 House seat?
Current price
14.15¢
+0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.15%
$11.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves cleanly based on which political party wins the 2026 general election for Texas's 32nd congressional district. The rules provide straightforward mechanisms for handling non-major-party candidates by looking at ballot listings and stated caucus intentions. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, with an explicit official fallback to the Federal Election Commission if reporting is disputed or ambiguous. Resolution timing depends on when all House races nationwide are conclusively decided, which may introduce minor delays in the event of close recounts elsewhere, but does not alter the fundamental outcome criteria.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the Texas 32nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates who express intent to caucus with Democrats.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the TX-32 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. The market resolves No if another party wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in cases of ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the official fallback.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.