Will the Republican Party win the PA-17 House seat?
Current price
2.6¢
+0.05¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.6%
$17.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible media reporting to determine the race winner, with official Federal Election Commission reporting designated as a formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Candidate party affiliation is clearly established by ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. The resolution criteria align closely with standard election tracking.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win the U.S. House of Representatives election for Pennsylvania's 17th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the PA-17 seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if not listed on the ballot as Democrat or Republican. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if reporting is ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election date: — Midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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