Will the Republican Party win the PA-10 House seat?
Current price
19.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19.5%
$7.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the party winning the PA-10 congressional seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly handle edge cases regarding independent candidates by defining party affiliation through ballot listing or stated intent to caucus at the time all House races are called. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission certified data serving as a backup if reporting is ambiguous, keeping overall surprise risk low.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the Pennsylvania 10th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the PA-10 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or if not listed as Democrat or Republican, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with when all 2026 House elections are called. A consensus of credible reporting decides the election outcome. If credible reporting is ambiguous, official results from the Federal Election Commission decide the market.
Key dates
- Midterm election date: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections stated in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results as a fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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