Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?
Last captured price
71.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 71.5%
$12.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins Ohio's 9th congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify that resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Rules also clearly handle edge cases regarding party affiliation, including independent candidates who caucus with a major party. Standard delays in election certification or race calls are normal for midterms, but the resolution mechanism is straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Democratic candidate wins the Ohio 9th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. Candidates without a party ballot line are categorized by their most recently expressed caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-09 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party, based on their ballot line or most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all House races are called. It resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election date specified in the rules.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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