Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat?
Current price
27.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$31.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins the Ohio 9th Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The rules specify how independent or third-party candidates will be classified based on their caucusing intent if applicable. Resolution relies initially on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official Federal Election Commission certified results in the event of ambiguity or dispute, which limits resolution discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins Ohio's 9th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections, including candidates without a ballot affiliation who intend to caucus with Republicans.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the OH-09 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party, or lacks a Democratic or Republican ballot listing but most recently expressed an intent to caucus with Republicans when all House elections are called. It resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to another party or caucuses elsewhere. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with ambiguous cases resolved solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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