Will the Republican Party win the NY-22 House seat?
Current price
5.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.5%
$20.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for New York's 22nd congressional district. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in the event of ambiguity. The rules clearly specify how candidate party affiliation is assigned, including explicit handling for independent or third-party candidates based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution depends on when all House races are conclusively called, which could introduce minor delays if other districts face recounts, but the criteria for determining the winner and their party are well-defined.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market tracks whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for New York's 22nd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the NY-22 congressional district seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is not affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called; candidates without a listed major-party affiliation are assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — The election date for the NY-22 congressional seat.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source for official results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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