Will the Republican Party win the NE-02 House seat?
Current price
4.85¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 4.85%
$26.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. The rules clearly handle potential edge cases regarding candidate party affiliation by specifying ballot listings or expressed intent to caucus. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with an explicit fallback to official results from the Federal Election Commission in the event of ambiguity. The mechanisms are standard for U.S. congressional race markets, leaving very little room for surprising interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the candidate winning the NE-02 House seat is affiliated with or caucuses with the Republican Party. A candidate without a ballot affiliation to the Democratic or Republican party is assigned based on their most recently expressed caucus intent when all House races are called. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins. The election result is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting used if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — Midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.