Will the Republican Party win the IA-03 House seat?
Current price
19¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 19%
$7.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome depends on which party wins the Iowa 3rd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an official fallback to Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises. The market also includes clear standard provisions for handling independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot affiliation or stated caucus intentions at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a ballot listing for a major party are classified by their expressed caucusing intent once all House races are called.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the IA-03 seat is affiliated with or caucuses with the Republican Party when all 2026 House races are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate belongs to or caucuses with another party, such as the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing or, if unaffiliated with the major parties, by the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time all House elections are called. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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