Will the Republican Party win the IA-01 House seat?
Current price
10.5¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$15.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on which party wins the 2026 midterm election for Iowa's 1st Congressional District. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as a clear fallback if reporting is ambiguous. The rules explicitly define how candidate party affiliations and non-major-party caucus intentions are evaluated, leaving little room for conflicting interpretations or unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Iowa's 1st congressional district (IA-01) House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party label are classified based on their stated caucusing intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the Republican Party wins the IA-01 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves to No if a candidate affiliated with another party wins the seat. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. A candidate lacking a Democratic or Republican ballot listing is assigned to a party based on their most recently expressed intent to caucus. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm elections: — Date of the midterm elections
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback source in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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