Will the Democratic Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Current price
25.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 25.5%
$8.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on which party wins Florida's 13th congressional district in the November 2026 midterm elections. The rules establish a standard hierarchy of evidence, relying first on a consensus of credible reporting and falling back to official results published by the Federal Election Commission if ambiguity arises. The criteria for determining party affiliation are clearly detailed, including explicit instructions for non-major-party candidates based on their expressed intent to caucus when all House races are conclusively called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party will win the Florida's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the FL-13 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Democratic Party. Party affiliation is determined by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus when all House races are called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins the seat. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the sole source if results are ambiguous.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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