Will the Republican Party win the FL-13 House seat?
Last captured price
74¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 74%
$5.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the FL-13 congressional race in the 2026 US midterm elections. The resolution rules are clearly tied to the party affiliation of the winning candidate, with explicit fallback provisions for candidates who run without a major party label, assigning them based on stated caucus intent. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting, with official government reporting from the Federal Election Commission serving as the formal fallback if reporting is ambiguous. While reliance on credible reporting involves decider judgment, standard election outcomes in specific House districts are typically unambiguous.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Florida's 13th congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections. Party affiliation includes caucus intent for candidates not ballot-listed as Democrat or Republican.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate of the FL-13 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A winning candidate without a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation counts as Republican if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans when all 2026 House elections are called. The market resolves No if a candidate affiliated with another party (including Democrats or those caucusing with Democrats) wins. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or by official Federal Election Commission results if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Midterm elections date: — Date the 2026 midterm elections will take place.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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