Will the Republican Party win the CO-08 House seat?
Current price
15.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$10.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves clearly based on the party affiliation of the candidate who wins the CO-08 seat in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a definitive fallback if any ambiguity arises. Clear guidelines are provided for handling independent or third-party candidates by looking at ballot listing or publicly expressed caucusing intent at the time all House races are called.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for Colorado's 8th congressional district. It accounts for candidates without formal major-party ballot affiliations based on their expressed intent to caucus.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CO-08 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party, either by ballot listing, identifiable affiliation, or expressed intent to caucus at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with another party, such as the Democratic Party. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, the official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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