Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Current price
29.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 29.5%
$13.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly defines the event as the 2026 House race for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, including explicit rules for determining a candidate's party affiliation if they run as an independent or third-party candidate. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a single named official source at the outset, though official Federal Election Commission certification serves as a definitive fallback if reporting is ambiguous. Timing is tied to the standard election calendar and subsequent race calls, presenting minimal structural surprise for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party wins the election for Colorado's 3rd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CO-03 House seat is affiliated with the Democratic Party. A winning candidate without a ballot-listed party affiliation counts for the Democratic Party if they most recently expressed intent to caucus with Democrats when all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if a candidate from another party wins. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, the Federal Election Commission serves as the deciding source.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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