Will the Republican Party win the CO-03 House seat?
Current price
69.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 69.5%
$14.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves on the outcome of the 2026 midterm election for Colorado's 3rd Congressional District. The rules clearly establish how candidate party affiliation is judged, including an explicit mechanism for independent or minor-party winners based on their stated intent to caucus. Resolution relies primarily on a consensus of credible media reporting to call the race, which leaves judgment to the decider, with official Federal Election Commission reporting serving as a secondary fallback if reporting remains ambiguous. Because counting, recounts, or official certification by election authorities can take weeks or months following election day, final settlement may face some delay, but the overall criteria directly align with standard congressional election outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether a Republican candidate will win the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Colorado's 3rd congressional district (CO-03) in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major-party ballot listing are classified based on their most recently stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for Colorado's 3rd congressional district in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently stated an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with or caucuses with another party. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission serving as the official fallback source in the event of ambiguity. Party affiliation is determined at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called.
Key dates
- 2026 Midterm Elections: — The election date specified in the rules for the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguous
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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