Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?
Current price
15.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$11.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market follows standard congressional election mechanics for Arizona's 6th district in the 2026 midterms. Resolution relies first on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to official Federal Election Commission reporting if ambiguity arises. The rules explicitly specify how non-major party candidates are attributed by checking ballot listing or their most recently stated intent to caucus when all House races are called. Arizona vote counting can take several days to finalize, but official backup sources and clear party attribution guidelines minimize structural surprise.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win Arizona's 6th congressional district House seat in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates without a major party ballot listing are assigned to a party based on their stated caucus intent.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the AZ-06 U.S. House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot listing or identifiable affiliation when all 2026 House races are called. If a candidate lacks a ballot affiliation for the Democratic or Republican parties, their party is based on the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at that time. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official Federal Election Commission results serving as the sole source if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Election Day: — The 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission as the fallback
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.