Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
Last captured price
75¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 75%
$7.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
This market resolves cleanly based on which political party wins the Arizona 2nd Congressional District seat in the 2026 midterms. The rules clearly handle independent or third-party candidates by looking at their declared caucusing intent when the races are called. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with a clear fallback to the Federal Election Commission if any ambiguity arises. Resolution timing depends on when all House races are conclusively called, but the underlying outcome criteria are straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party wins the U.S. House of Representatives seat for Arizona's 2nd Congressional District in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the winning candidate for the AZ-02 seat is affiliated with the Republican Party on the ballot or has most recently expressed intent to caucus with Republicans at the time all House elections are called. It resolves No if the winning candidate is affiliated with the Democratic Party or another party not caucusing with Republicans. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting. If ambiguity exists, official results reported by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) will resolve the market.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 midterm elections.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as the fallback official source
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.