Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
2¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2%
$32.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seat counts will be determined following the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress. Clear edge-case rules define how party switches, post-election vacancies, runoffs, and independent members caucusing with Republicans are counted. Resolution timing may extend into January if runoff elections occur or if newly elected independents have not announced their caucus intentions by election day. The decider relies on state election authorities, congressional records, and a consensus of credible media reporting to finalize the numbers.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure at least 230 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections. It unusually includes independents who caucus or declare intent to caucus with Republicans, while ignoring post-election party switches or vacancies.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party obtains 230 or more voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress. This total includes runoff winners, candidates elected under the Republican label (even if they later vacate their seat or switch parties before Congress organizes), and independents who formally caucus or announce an intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the Republican seat count is 229 or fewer. Independents whose caucus choice is unknown by January 4, 11:59 PM ET of the following year will not count toward any party. Resolution is decided by official data from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Scheduled date of the 2026 midterm elections.
- Independent Caucus Declaration Deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for newly elected independent members to announce caucus intentions.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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