Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
2.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.25%
$26K total volume · YES/NO
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Gotcha coverage has not been generated for this market.
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will hold between 225 and 229 seats in the US House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections, including any relevant special elections and runoffs.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds between 225 and 229 seats in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This includes all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or identifiable affiliation at the time all 2026 House elections are conclusively called. The market resolves No if the Republican Party holds fewer than 225 or more than 229 seats. If a required runoff election could change the market’s outcome, the market remains open until that runoff is conclusively called. The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. The market resolves once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If these three sources do not achieve consensus, the market resolves based on the official certification.
Key dates
- Scheduled Election Date:
- Cut-off for included elections: — All US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of this date are included.
Resolution source
the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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