Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
6.15¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 6.15%
$13.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the target range, how seats are counted, and how party affiliation is determined for the 120th Congress. Detailed edge-case instructions cover candidates elected as independents, party switches, and post-election vacancies prior to the formal organization of Congress. Resolution timing may be delayed if seats require runoffs or if independent members have not formally declared their caucus intentions, with a backstop deadline set for January 4 of the following year. Sources include official state election data, Congress, and consensus media reporting, but the underlying objective facts make surprise resolutions unlikely.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure between 215 and 219 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins between 215 and 219 voting House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. Seats decided by runoffs count based on the runoff result. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if the member vacates the seat or switches parties before Congress organizes. Independents count toward the total if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus with Republicans; if unannounced by January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following year, they count for no party. The market resolves No if the final Republican seat count is outside the 215 to 219 range. Official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Date of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
- Independent Caucus Decision Deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for independent members to announce their caucusing intent.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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