Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
12.65¢
+5.95¢ · 24h
Implied probability 12.65%
$17.9K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market provides precise definitions for what constitutes the seat count, explicitly covering the inclusion of runoffs, how post-election vacancies and party switches are handled, and how independents who caucus with the party are tallied. Resolution may take several weeks or extend into early January if races go to runoffs or independent caucus declarations are delayed. The resolution sources rely on a combination of official state election authorities, the United States Congress, and consensus reporting, which provides a reliable basis for determining the outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win between 210 and 214 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party holds between 210 and 214 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives resulting from the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress. The market resolves to No if the total is outside this range. Runoff results determine seat attribution where applicable. Seats are counted based on the party under which the member was elected, regardless of post-election party changes or vacancies before formal organization. Independents count toward the Republican total only if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus with Republicans; undecided independents are excluded if unannounced by January 4, 11:59 PM ET of the following year. Resolution is decided by official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Midterm Election Day: — Date of the 2026 United States midterm elections
- Independent Caucus Announcement Deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for independent members to announce caucus intentions
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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