Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Current price
23¢
−3.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23%
$45.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are counted for the 120th Congress, explicitly addressing party attribution, candidate vacancies, party switches before convening, runoffs, and independent members caucusing with Republicans. Resolution may be delayed until runoffs are finalized or independent caucus intentions are declared up through January 4 of the following year. Sources include official state election data, congressional records, and a consensus of credible reporting without an explicit hierarchy between them, but the objective nature of certified election tallies leaves little room for divergent interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market asks whether the Republican Party will hold between 205 and 209 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. The market includes all elected voting members for the 120th Congress, counting independents who caucus with the Republican Party.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party holds between 205 and 209 seats, inclusive, in the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. This count includes all House elections for voting members of the 120th Congress. Seats decided by a runoff count the runoff result. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if they change affiliation or vacate the seat before Congress organizes. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or announce intent to caucus with, the Republican Party are included. The market resolves No if the Republican Party's seat count is outside the 205-209 range. If an independent member's caucus decision is unclear on election day, the market may remain open until their announcement or January 4th of the following year; if no announcement is made by then, they do not count towards any party. Resolution sources are official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- 2026 United States midterm election:
Resolution source
official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
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