Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
11.25¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11.25%
$28.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seat totals are counted for the 120th Congress, explicitly detailing how to handle runoffs, party switches, mid-transition vacancies, and independent members who choose to caucus with the party. Resolution relies on official state election authorities and Congress alongside consensus reporting, though delays are possible if runoffs occur or if independent members delay announcing their caucus intent up to the specified January 4 deadline.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Thin book — large orders will move this price. At the daily check: a spread of 5¢ or more (or none quoted), or less than $2K within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure between 200 and 204 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins between 200 and 204 voting House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. Seats include runoffs and are attributed to the party under which the member was elected, even if they switch parties or vacate the seat before Congress formally organizes. Independent members count toward the total if they formally caucus with Republicans or announce their intent to do so. The market resolves No if the final Republican seat count is outside the 200 to 204 range. If an independent member's caucus decision is unclear, resolution may wait until an announcement or January 4 of the following year at 11:59 PM ET, after which unannounced independents do not count toward any party. Resolution is decided using official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and credible reporting consensus.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- Independent caucus decision deadline: — Cutoff at 11:59 PM ET for independent members to announce caucus intent before being excluded from party counts.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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