Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
13.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 13.5%
$36.6K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market clearly specifies that seats are counted based on the results of the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress, explicitly inclusive of runoffs. Edge cases are well-addressed: members who switch parties or vacate their seats prior to congressional organization remain attributed to the party on their ballot line, and independent members count toward the total if they formally announce an intent to caucus with Republicans by January 4 of the following year. Resolution relies on official state election authorities and congressional records alongside credible reporting, minimizing ambiguity. The main timing factor to anticipate is that unresolved recounts, runoffs, or delayed caucus announcements by independent members could keep the market open until early January 2027.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure between 195 and 199 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins between 195 and 199 voting House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if the final Republican seat count is outside this range. Runoff results determine seat attribution where applicable. Seats are attributed based on the party under which the member was elected, disregarding post-election party switches or vacancies before Congress organizes. Independents count toward the Republican total if they formally caucus or announce intent to caucus with Republicans by January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following year; otherwise, they are excluded from party counts. Official state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting decide the outcome.
Key dates
- Election day: — The 2026 United States midterm elections take place.
- Independent caucus deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year is the deadline for independent caucus announcements to be counted.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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