Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
9.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9.5%
$17.8K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seats are counted, including explicit handling for runoff elections, party-switching before the term begins, vacancies, and independent candidates who caucus with the party. Market resolution may face standard post-election delays while close races and runoffs are finalized, or if an independent member's caucus choice remains unannounced up until the specified January 4 cutoff date. Resolution relies on a combination of official state election authorities, congressional records, and consensus reporting across news outlets without a single designated primary source.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win between 190 and 194 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party's seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives resulting from the 2026 midterm elections is between 190 and 194 seats. This count includes all voting seats determining representation in the 120th Congress, incorporates runoff results, attributes seats based on the party under which a member was elected regardless of post-election party switches or vacancies, and includes independents who caucus with or announce intent to caucus with Republicans. The market resolves No if the final Republican seat count falls outside the 190 to 194 range. If an independent member's caucus decision is unclear, the market may stay open until an announcement or January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following year, after which they are excluded from any party's count. Resolution is determined by official information from state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Election Day: — Date of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- Independent Caucus Announcement Deadline: — Deadline for independent members to announce caucus intentions before being excluded from party seat counts.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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