Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Last captured price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$57.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify how seat totals for the 120th Congress are calculated, establishing that 'below 190' requires 189 or fewer seats. Specific mechanics govern runoff elections, vacancies, party-switching, and independents caucusing with Republicans, including a definitive cutoff date of January 4 following the election for unannounced caucus intentions. Resolution relies on official state election authorities, Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces standard post-election waiting times for final certifications and potential runoffs but minimal interpretive ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will secure fewer than 190 voting seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections for the 120th Congress.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins fewer than 190 voting House seats in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves No if the Republican Party wins 190 or more voting House seats. Seats decided by runoffs follow the runoff result. Seats are attributed to the party under which the candidate was elected, even if the member-elect switches parties or vacates the seat prior to the formal organization of Congress. Independents count toward the total if they formally caucus or announce an intent to caucus with Republicans. If an independent's caucus decision is unannounced by January 4 at 11:59 PM ET of the following year, they are excluded from party counts. Resolution is determined by official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- 2026 midterm election date: — Date of the scheduled 2026 midterm elections.
- Independent caucus announcement deadline: January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year is the deadline for independent caucus announcements to be counted.
Resolution source
Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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