Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Current price
97.65¢
−0.15¢ · 24h
Implied probability 97.65%
$4.7M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the outcome based on official Formula 1 driver standings and formal tiebreak procedures. Official information from Formula 1 serves as the sole resolution source, minimizing discretion. Resolution occurs upon the conclusion of the final race, with clear early resolution to No if the driver is mathematically eliminated before the season ends. Standard contingencies for season cancellation or severe delays past March 31, 2027, are explicitly detailed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kimi Antonelli will win the 2026 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship. The market features early resolution to No if he becomes mathematically eliminated before the season ends.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Kimi Antonelli finishes first in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season, including through official F1 tiebreak procedures in the event of a tie. The market resolves to No if another driver wins the championship or if it becomes mathematically impossible for Antonelli to win at any point. The market resolves to Other if the 2026 season is permanently canceled or has not finished by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution happens once the official results of the final scheduled race are known or an early condition is satisfied. Formula 1 is the primary resolution source.
Key dates
- Season completion deadline: — The market resolves to Other if the 2026 F1 season is permanently canceled or not completed by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Formula 1
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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