10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly define the outcome using a strict threshold of magnitude 10.0 or higher within explicit start and end timestamps.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly define the outcome using a strict threshold of magnitude 10.0 or higher within explicit start and end timestamps. Resolution relies on a named scientific authority, the United States Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program. To prevent premature settlement, the market incorporates a mandatory 24-hour waiting window after an event is registered to capture initial magnitude revisions. The only discretionary element is a fallback provision allowing market resolution to extend through January 31, 2027, using alternative credible sources if a massive event does not appear on the primary USGS database, but USGS data otherwise governs.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chance▼ −0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market explained
This market measures whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occurs anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth during the designated timeframe. If a qualifying earthquake is registered, the market stays open for 24 hours to account for magnitude revisions before resolving based on the latest data. The market resolves to No if no such earthquake occurs within the timeframe. The primary resolution source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program. If a substantial earthquake occurs within the timeframe but does not appear on the USGS source, the market may stay open until January 31, 2027, after which another credible source will be used if it has not appeared.
Resolution source
United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·