9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market clearly defines its criteria, timeframe, and designated reporting agency.
Read the full assessment
This market clearly defines its criteria, timeframe, and designated reporting agency. Resolution relies on data from the United States Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program to verify if a magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake occurs globally within the specified dates. The rules explicitly manage potential real-world reporting delays by providing a 24-hour waiting window for magnitude revisions after an event, alongside a defined extension until January 31, 2027, if a major event has not yet been indexed by the primary source.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
3%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market explained
This market measures whether at least one earthquake with a magnitude of 9.0 or greater occurs globally within the specified timeframe. A notable feature is a 24-hour waiting period after a qualifying event to accommodate magnitude revisions.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if one or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 at 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such earthquake occurs during that window. The primary deciding source is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program. Once a qualifying earthquake is recorded, the market remains open for 24 hours to account for magnitude revisions before resolving on the latest data. If a substantial earthquake occurs in the window but is not listed by USGS, resolution may wait until January 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, after which another credible source will be used.
Resolution source
United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·