EU dissolves before 2027?
Current price
1.7¢
−0.2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.7%
$185.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
The rules clearly define the conditions for dissolution, but contain an important clause defining withdrawal: a member state is considered to have withdrawn as soon as it officially initiates withdrawal or notifies the European Council (such as triggering Article 50), even if the formal exit process has not concluded before the deadline. Official statements from the EU and member states serve as the primary source, though the resolver retains the discretion to rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met: 1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU. 2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the European Union dissolves before 2027. Notably, a member state counts as having withdrawn as soon as it officially initiates withdrawal or formally notifies the European Council, even if the withdrawal process is not completed within the market's timeframe.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the European Union dissolves by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Dissolution is met if more than half of EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw, if all member states adopt an official treaty or agreement repealing the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, or if the EU otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity. Member states count as withdrawn once they officially initiate withdrawal or formally notify the European Council, regardless of when finalization occurs. The market resolves to No if none of these conditions are met by the deadline. Official information from the European Union and its member states decides the outcome, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Deadline for dissolution conditions to be met (11:59 PM ET).
Resolution source
Official information from the European Union and EU member states, or a consensus of credible reporting
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