New pandemic in 2026?
Gotcha risk
Medium1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market relies on official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Read the full assessment
The market relies on official announcements from the World Health Organization. The primary area of uncertainty is that the WHO formally declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations, rather than maintaining a formal statutory mechanism specifically titled a pandemic declaration. Participants should be aware of potential ambiguity regarding whether descriptive statements or press briefings using the word pandemic qualify as a declaration, or if a formal PHEIC designation is required. Otherwise, the timeframe and authoritative source are well defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▲ +0.05 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.
Market explained
This market measures whether the World Health Organization declares any disease to be a pandemic during the 2026 calendar year.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to No if no such pandemic declaration occurs within this timeframe. Official announcements from the World Health Organization determine the resolution.
Resolution source
Official announcements from the World Health Organization
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·