Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The market clearly specifies the exact time for measurement (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch) and includes a longstop expiration date.
Read the full assessment
The market clearly specifies the exact time for measurement (4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch) and includes a longstop expiration date. However, the exact pricing venue is not named in advance, instead relying on the decider to determine the most liquid price source available at the time of resolution. Additionally, while the formula for fully diluted valuation is given, verifying total token supply across initial announcements or smart contracts can occasionally involve minor discrepancies between initial circulating supply and total supply.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
18%
chance▼ −3 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Theo's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Theo (https://x.com/Theo_Network) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Market explained
This market measures whether the Fully Diluted Valuation of the Theo token exceeds $100M one day after its launch.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of Theo's token is greater than $100M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. A token launch requires the token to be actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. The market resolves to No if the FDV is not above $100M at that time, or if Theo does not launch a token by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available.
Resolution source
The most liquid price source available
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·