Will the Republican Party win the CA-22 House seat?
Current price
9¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9%
$18.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define that resolution depends on which party wins the CA-22 House seat in the 2026 midterms, including clear fallback logic for caucus intent if a candidate runs without a major-party ballot line. Initial resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, which leaves some latitude to the decider to determine when reporting is conclusive, though an official backstop via the Federal Election Commission is specified if ambiguity persists. California elections often take several weeks to count and certify ballots, introducing potential timing delays between election night and final resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party will win California's 22nd congressional district seat in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the candidate winning the CA-22 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections is affiliated with the Republican Party. A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed affiliation, or by their most recently expressed intent to caucus if they lack a ballot-listed Democratic or Republican affiliation. The market resolves No if a non-Republican candidate wins the seat. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Midterm elections: — The date the 2026 midterm elections take place.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or the Federal Election Commission (FEC) if there is ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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