FAA outage attributed to Iran?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide clear and strict criteria for what constitutes an official U.S. government attribution, including specific exclusions for proxy groups without direct state links, speculative language like probable or suspected, and anonymous leaks.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide clear and strict criteria for what constitutes an official U.S. government attribution, including specific exclusions for proxy groups without direct state links, speculative language like probable or suspected, and anonymous leaks. While a consensus of credible reporting can serve as a secondary source to identify qualifying statements, the underlying requirement demands an authorized U.S. official statement or federal indictment. Resolution is definitive once a qualifying statement is made within the clear deadline, regardless of subsequent retractions.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA outage to Iran between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The FAA outage refers to the equipment and communications outage that led the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue a nationwide ground stop on departures from U.S. airports on November 13, 2026. A qualifying attribution is a public statement by an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity stating that the outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state, including its armed forces (including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) or intelligence services, or by persons acting on their instructions. Criminal charges filed by U.S. federal prosecutors alleging that the outage was caused on behalf of the aforementioned Iranian state services will also qualify. Attributions to Iranian proxy or partner groups, such as Hezbollah, will not qualify, unless the statement also states that the Iranian state, as defined above, carried out, ordered, or directed the outage. Statements describing Iranian involvement as suspected, likely, probable, or not ruled out, or stating only that the outage bears the hallmarks of or is consistent with Iranian activity, will not qualify. Statements by anonymous or unnamed officials or by governments of other countries will not qualify on their own. Once a qualifying attribution is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of any later retraction, Iranian denial, or the outcome of legal proceedings. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements and publications from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether the U.S. government officially attributes the November 13, 2026, FAA equipment and communications outage to Iran by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if an authorized representative of the U.S. federal government acting in an official capacity publicly states that the November 13, 2026, FAA outage was carried out, caused, ordered, or directed by the Iranian state (including armed forces like the IRGC, intelligence services, or persons acting on their instructions), or if federal prosecutors file criminal charges alleging the same. Attributions solely to Iranian proxy groups do not qualify unless the Iranian state is also named as carrying out, ordering, or directing it. Qualified statements (e.g., suspected, likely, or consistent with) and statements by anonymous officials or foreign governments do not qualify. Later retractions or denials are disregarded. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is decided using official U.S. government statements and publications, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official statements and publications from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·