Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on November 15?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules establish an explicit, deterministic protocol for resolving the temperature.
Read the full assessment
The rules establish an explicit, deterministic protocol for resolving the temperature. Resolution relies on direct METAR observations for Gimhae International Airport published by the Aviation Weather Center via a provided API URL. The mechanics strictly define which reports count, how to extract the temperature from the raw code remarks versus body groups, how rounding applies, and what fallback source to use if primary data is unavailable. The only contingency to note is a standard 7-day hold in the event of obvious technical errors or data interference.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
36%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature reported at Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK) on 15 Nov '26. The qualifying value is the highest temperature reported in the hourly temperature remark of any routine (METAR) observation for Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK) on that date, in tenths of a degree Celsius as reported. A report whose line begins with SPECI is a special observation and does not count. Every other report is routine, including one issued off the nominal hour and one that carries no METAR or SPECI label. For How to Read the METAR Report, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Weather/How+to+Read+the+METAR+Report.pdf The hourly temperature remark is the group beginning with the letter T followed by exactly eight digits. After the T, one digit for sign (0 positive, 1 negative) and three for tenths of a degree Celsius give the temperature; the following four are the dew point and are not used. T01390133 is 13.9°C; T10171022 is −1.7°C. If a routine observation does not carry the hourly temperature remark, the temperature group in the body of that observation governs for that observation, in whole degrees Celsius as reported. It appears as temperature and dew point separated by a slash, with M marking a negative value: 18/12 is 18°C; M11/M17 is −11°C. An observation that reports no temperature in either place is disregarded. Each market in this event states its range in whole degrees Celsius. The qualifying value is rounded to the nearest whole degree, with a value ending in exactly half rounded up to the next higher whole degree, and that whole Celsius value determines which range contains it. For example, 13.9°C counts as 14°C; 17.4°C counts as 17°C; 16.5°C counts as 17°C; −1.7°C counts as −2°C; −8.5°C counts as −8°C. An observation counts if its time stamp, converted to the station's local time (including any daylight-saving shift in effect), falls on the observation date. This market will resolve at the issuance of the first METAR observation for the station on the day following the observation date or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. Resolution is determined from the observations the resolution source shows for the observation date. In the event that the Aviation Weather Center has published no routine observation reporting a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that neither source has published data sufficient to determine a temperature for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The report the resolution source shows for a given observation time is the one that counts, whether or not it is marked as a correction (COR). Changes to observations within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered. Where the first routine observation for the following date is published before that deadline, resolution is determined from a read taken after it. Where it is not, resolution is determined from a read taken at that deadline. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. The resolution source for this market will be the routine observations for Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK) published here: https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=RKPK&format=raw&date=2026-11-15T18:00:00Z&hours=30
Market explained
This market measures whether the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport in Busan on November 15, 2026, rounds to 20°C based on routine METAR weather reports.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the highest temperature reported at Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK) on November 15, 2026, rounds to 20°C. The qualifying value is the highest temperature from the hourly temperature remark (T-group) of any routine METAR observation in station local time, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius (half degrees round up). Special observations (SPECI) do not count. If the T-group is absent, the whole-degree body group governs; observations missing both are disregarded. The market resolves to No if the rounded peak temperature falls outside the 20°C bracket. If Aviation Weather Center has no qualifying observations by 11:59 PM ET on the following day, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used. If neither source provides sufficient data by that deadline, the market resolves to the lowest bracket. Resolution is determined by the Aviation Weather Center observations, or Polymarket clarification in cases of uncorrected operational errors.
Resolution source
Aviation Weather Center routine METAR observations for Gimhae Intl Airport (RKPK)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·