Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027?
Last captured price
1.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 1.5%
$676.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market resolves to Yes upon an announced agreement to acquire or merge OpenAI, even if the transaction is never finalized or closed, which differs from requiring a completed acquisition. Resolution relies primarily on official communications from OpenAI or its leadership, but also permits a consensus of credible reporting without specifying which media outlets qualify, requiring decider judgment if reporting is fragmented. The deadline is clearly defined as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an agreement to acquire OpenAI is entered into before 2027. Notably, an announced acquisition agreement qualifies even if the transaction is never ultimately completed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity count, and an announced agreement qualifies regardless of whether the acquisition is completed. The market resolves to No if no such agreement occurs by the deadline. Resolution is determined primarily through official information from the company or its leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Acquisition agreement deadline: — Agreement must be entered into by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the listed company and/or its leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting
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