Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?
Current price
2.05¢
−0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 2.05%
$196.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the qualifying event: an announced agreement to acquire or subsume the company before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Notably, the acquisition does not need to close, so an announced deal that later falls through still resolves the market to Yes. Resolution relies primarily on official statements from the company or its leadership, with credible reporting as a secondary source, creating minimal ambiguity or surprise for participants.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution. An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an agreement to acquire Anthropic is announced or entered into before 2027. Notably, the acquisition does not need to be completed; an announced agreement qualifies.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity count for Yes. An announced acquisition agreement also qualifies for Yes even if the deal is not ultimately completed. The market resolves to No if no such agreement occurs by the deadline. Resolution decisions rely on official information from Anthropic or its leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Acquisition agreement deadline: — Deadline for an entity to enter into an agreement to acquire Anthropic.
Resolution source
Official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting
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