Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by December 31, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying prisoner exchange, requiring a reciprocal transfer of at least one living individual held in custody by each side.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify what constitutes a qualifying prisoner exchange, requiring a reciprocal transfer of at least one living individual held in custody by each side. They also clearly delineate what does not count, such as unilateral releases, body repatriations, or mere announcements. The resolution relies on official statements from both governments alongside a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces minor discretion if reports conflict, but the clear threshold criteria minimize the potential for surprising outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
91%
chanceNot enough price history for this range yet.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On November 11, 2026, following US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war, with the number of prisoners involved still being finalized. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A prisoner exchange refers to a reciprocal transfer in which each country releases to the other at least one living individual held in its custody. Exchanges conducted with the assistance of third parties (e.g., mediation by the United Arab Emirates or the United States, or a handover in Belarus) will qualify. If an exchange is conducted in multiple stages, the first completed stage will qualify. The number of prisoners involved does not matter, and the numbers released by each side need not be equal. Any swap involving military or civilian detainees held by either government will qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: the repatriation of bodies or remains; unilateral releases; and transfers of individuals not held in detention, such as family reunifications, humanitarian evacuations, or the return of children. An agreement or announcement of a future exchange will not qualify unless the exchange actually takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market explained
This market measures whether Russia and Ukraine complete a confirmed reciprocal prisoner exchange by December 31, 2026. The exchange qualifies regardless of third-party involvement or unequal numbers, but mere agreements without an actual swap do not count.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine occurs between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying exchange requires a reciprocal transfer where each country releases at least one living military or civilian detainee held in custody, with unequal counts and third-party assistance permitted, and the first completed stage counting for multi-stage swaps. The market resolves to No if no qualifying exchange takes place by the deadline. Unilateral releases, repatriation of remains, transfers of non-detainees, and unfulfilled announcements do not qualify. Resolution is decided by official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·