Will Jensen Huang be arrested by November 30, 2026?
Gotcha risk
Low1 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules provide comprehensive and precise criteria defining what constitutes a qualifying arrest, explicitly requiring physical custody alongside specific criminal processing conditions.
Read the full assessment
The rules provide comprehensive and precise criteria defining what constitutes a qualifying arrest, explicitly requiring physical custody alongside specific criminal processing conditions. Clear exclusions are listed, clarifying that warrants without custody, simple questioning, searches, or non-criminal holds do not qualify. While the resolution sources allow a consensus of credible reporting alongside official government or law enforcement announcements, the high threshold of physical custody and booking leaves little room for ambiguity or unexpected outcomes.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
1%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jensen Huang, co-founder of NVIDIA, is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying arrest occurs when Huang is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) he is criminally booked or processed; (ii) he is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) he is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) he is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether NVIDIA co-founder Jensen Huang is placed under a qualifying arrest by November 30, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Jensen Huang is taken into physical custody by law enforcement in any jurisdiction between market creation and November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and is either booked, taken into custody under a criminal charging instrument, held for criminal court proceedings, or transported to a police station. Issuance of warrants, indictments without custody, brief detentions, questioning, searches, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds do not qualify. Subsequent release, dismissal, acquittal, or pardon does not affect a Yes resolution once an arrest occurs. The market resolves to No otherwise. Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement serves as the primary source, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·