Will the Republicans win Kansas in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party or candidate winning the most valid statewide popular votes in Kansas.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution tracks the party or candidate winning the most valid statewide popular votes in Kansas. The resolution pathway is well-structured: it triggers early if the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the race for the same candidate, and falls back on official state-certified results if they do not agree or do not call the race. A definitive long-stop date of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if results remain undetermined. Replacement nominee handling and multi-round voting rules are explicitly defined.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
84%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Kansas in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Kansas results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Kansas in the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the nominee representing the Republican Party wins the most valid statewide votes in Kansas in the 2028 presidential election. The market resolves to No if a candidate representing another party or an independent candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide Kansas results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources do not reach a consensus or fail to make statewide calls, the market resolves based on the certified election results reported by the state government. Vote counts from the final round apply if ranked-choice voting is used. Replacement nominees updated prior to election day represent their respective parties.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·