Will the Republicans win New York in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which party's nominee secures the most valid statewide votes in New York during the 2028 presidential election.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution depends on which party's nominee secures the most valid statewide votes in New York during the 2028 presidential election. Explicit sources and resolution mechanics are defined: resolution occurs once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If a consensus among those specific outlets is not reached or an outlet ceases race calls, the official certified state government results will dictate the outcome. A longstop deadline of December 31, 2029, resolves the market to Other if results cannot be definitively determined, leaving very little room for decider latitude or interpretive dispute.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
11%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in New York in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide New York results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New York in the 2028 presidential election, regardless of electoral college vote distribution.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in New York in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves to No if any other candidate wins the most statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. The primary deciders are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, resolving once all three concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If a listed organization does not make calls or they fail to reach consensus, resolution will be based on the certified results reported by the state government.
Resolution source
The Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified results from the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·