Will the Democrats win Montana in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market establishes clear resolution criteria based on the standard popular vote winner in Montana for the 2028 presidential election.
Read the full assessment
This market establishes clear resolution criteria based on the standard popular vote winner in Montana for the 2028 presidential election. It resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If those three outlets do not reach a consensus or fail to make a call, the market falls back directly to the official certified statewide results published by the state government. Replacement of party nominees before election day and ranked-choice scenarios are explicitly addressed, and a long-stop deadline of December 31, 2029, handles indefinite uncertainty by resolving to Other.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
13%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Montana in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Montana results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the popular vote in Montana in the 2028 US Presidential Election. It relies on the raw statewide vote totals regardless of how Electoral College votes are distributed.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the most valid statewide votes in Montana in the 2028 Presidential Election. The market resolves No if another candidate wins the most valid statewide votes. The market resolves to Other if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If any of these organizations do not make statewide race calls, they are struck from consideration. If the networks do not reach consensus, resolution is determined by the certified election results reported by the Montana state government.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or the certified election results reported by the state government
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·