Will the Democrats win Rhode Island in the 2028 Presidential Election?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by whichever candidate wins the most valid statewide votes in Rhode Island, defined by their official party nomination.
Read the full assessment
The rules clearly specify that resolution is determined by whichever candidate wins the most valid statewide votes in Rhode Island, defined by their official party nomination. Resolution sources are explicitly tiered: the market resolves as soon as the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If they fail to reach consensus or do not make calls, the official certified statewide results from the Rhode Island state government serve as the binding fallback. A generous backstop deadline of December 31, 2029, resolves to Other only if definitive results cannot be established. Overall, the criteria and sources leave virtually no room for discretion or misinterpretation.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
89%
chanceWhy it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in Rhode Island in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide Rhode Island results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party's nominee wins the popular vote in Rhode Island in the 2028 US Presidential Election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the winning party based on which candidate receives the most valid statewide votes in Rhode Island, regardless of electoral college vote distribution. The market resolves to Democratic if the Democratic nominee wins the most votes. It resolves to another named party, candidate, or option if a different nominee or independent candidate wins the most votes. The market resolves to "Other" if the statewide results cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC concurrently call the state for the same candidate. If these sources do not reach consensus or fail to make calls, official certified state results decide the outcome.
Resolution source
Associated Press, Fox News, NBC, or certified state government results
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·