Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market resolves to Yes if Steve Bannon announces a presidential run for 2028 before the end of 2026, even if no formal campaign filing is ever made.
Read the full assessment
This market resolves to Yes if Steve Bannon announces a presidential run for 2028 before the end of 2026, even if no formal campaign filing is ever made. Participants should be aware that distinguishing a serious, definitive campaign announcement from informal remarks, hypothetical posturing, or jokes in speeches or podcasts relies on judgment, especially since resolution can rely on a broad consensus of credible reporting rather than an official filing database.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Medium
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Last captured price
4%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market explained
This market measures whether Steve Bannon announces a candidacy for the 2028 United States presidential election before 2027. An announcement alone triggers resolution even if official nomination paperwork is never filed.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Steve Bannon announces he is running for President in the 2028 U.S. presidential election by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An announcement suffices regardless of whether he has filed or ever files an official nomination. The market resolves to No if no such announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution decisions are primarily determined by official statements from Steve Bannon, such as via speech or social media, or secondarily by a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official statements by the listed individual (e.g., via speech, social media, etc.) or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·