Fetterman out by December 31, 2026?
Current price
3.05¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$39.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules contain a significant clause that differs from a simple reading of the question: any formal announcement of resignation or removal made prior to December 31, 2026 triggers an immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of when that departure is scheduled to take effect. If an announcement is made with a future effective date, the market will resolve before the actual vacancy occurs. Resolution is determined by official communications from the senator or the U.S. government, with secondary reliance permitted on a consensus of credible media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman ceases to be U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of John Fetterman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether John Fetterman leaves his position as U.S. Senator representing Pennsylvania by December 31, 2026. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date is later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if John Fetterman ceases to be a U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). The market also immediately resolves to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No if he remains in office and no such announcement occurs by the deadline. Resolution decisions are based on official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Market resolves to No if Fetterman remains in office and has not announced resignation/removal by this date (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from John Fetterman and the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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