Iran Nuke before 2027?
Current price
3.05¢
−0.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.05%
$1.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market relies on open-ended sourcing rather than a single definitive authority, allowing confirmation via international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news sources without a specified hierarchy. This gives the resolver wide latitude to decide what counts as credible reporting. Additionally, defining what constitutes official confirmation of possessing a nuclear weapon—such as distinguishably confirmed possession versus ambiguous claims, nuclear breakout capability, or weaponization milestones—requires subjective interpretation if reporting is unverified or conflicting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran is officially confirmed to possess a nuclear weapon before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, the Iranian government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by reporting from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news organizations.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Confirmation must occur by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
International nuclear agencies, Iran's government, or credible global news sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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