Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Low0 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an emergency rate cut, specifying that the Federal Open Market Committee must hold an unscheduled meeting outside of its regular pre-scheduled calendar and lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate.
Read the full assessment
The resolution rules clearly define what constitutes an emergency rate cut, specifying that the Federal Open Market Committee must hold an unscheduled meeting outside of its regular pre-scheduled calendar and lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. Resolution is anchored to official announcements on the Federal Reserve website, with credible news reporting as a secondary reference. The active timeframe is explicitly bounded through December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, leaving minimal room for subjective interpretation or timing conflicts.
- Resolver
- Low
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- Low
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance↔ ±0 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Market explained
This market measures whether the FOMC conducts an unscheduled emergency meeting and cuts the target federal funds rate between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and 2026. The market resolves to No if no such emergency rate cut occurs within this period. Resolution is determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve's website or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Resolution source
Official announcements from the Federal Reserve's website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·