GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Current price
3.4¢
+0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 3.4%
$864.5K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes a postponement or missed release, establishing a firm cutoff deadline of November 19, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The criteria define a valid release as the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the United States, while explicitly clarifying that early access, beta tests, or leaks do not count, but single-console availability does. The primary resolution source is official communication directly from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive, though resolution may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On November 6, 2025, Take-Two Interactive, the parent company of Rockstar Games, announced that the launch of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) would be postponed from its previously scheduled release date of May 26, 2026, to a new release date of November 19, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026, or if Grand Theft Auto VI is otherwise not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the release of Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) in the US is postponed beyond November 19, 2026, or if the game is not released by that date. The market's resolution is unusual because it considers both official announcements and the actual availability of the game.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive officially announces that Grand Theft Auto VI will not be released by November 19, 2026. The market also resolves Yes if Grand Theft Auto VI is not released in the US by November 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Release means the game becomes publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks do not count as an official release. A release for only certain consoles will count. The market resolves No if neither of these conditions for Yes is met. The resolution source will be official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Original postponement announcement: — Take-Two Interactive announced GTA VI launch postponed from May 26, 2026, to November 19, 2026.
- Resolution Date: — Market resolves based on events by this date, 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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