Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?
Gotcha risk
Medium2 of 4 factors flagged
Watch for: This market includes critical contingency clauses that could surprise participants who only read the title.
Read the full assessment
This market includes critical contingency clauses that could surprise participants who only read the title. If Mamdani fails to take office as the 111th Mayor by February 1, 2026, the market automatically resolves to Yes rather than resolving to No or voiding. Additionally, merely announcing a resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the effective date occurs after the market end date or does not take effect immediately. Resolution relies primarily on official communications from Mamdani or the NYC Mayor's Office, but falls back on a consensus of credible reporting if necessary.
- Resolver
- Medium
- Timing
- Low
- Wording
- Low
- Exceptions
- High
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Current price
2%
chance▼ −0.2 pts · 24h
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period of time between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If Zohran Mamdani does not take office as the 111th Mayor of New York City, succeeding Eric Adams, as currently scheduled for January 1, 2026, by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes.” An announcement of Zohran Mamdani's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market explained
This market measures whether Zohran Mamdani leaves or fails to assume office as mayor of New York City before 2027. It unusually resolves to Yes immediately upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if the effective date is later, or if he fails to take office by February 1, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Zohran Mamdani ceases to be the mayor of New York City for any period between taking office and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It also resolves to Yes if he fails to take office as the 111th Mayor by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or immediately if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the market end date regardless of when it takes effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution source
Official information from Zohran Mamdani, his representatives, or the Office of the Mayor of New York City, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·